Injuries on key players are putting both teams in a tough position, but it should be a gritty, No. 4 vs. No. 5 series regardless as Chris Paul and James Harden going up against each other.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won the regular season series, 2-1.

HOME TEAM: #4 Houston Rockets (0-0)

The Rockets opened up the seeding games with strong back-to-back wins. They outlasted the Dallas Mavericks in a double overtime shootout, 153-149, and then edged out the NBA-leading Milwaukee Bucks in another hard-fought battle, 120-116.

Unfortunately, they lost four of their next six, including the final three. The struggles were mainly due to Russell Westbrook’s quadriceps injury, which made him miss half of the eight bubble contests and possibly a couple of games in this first-round series.

As such, expect James Harden to continue powering the offense, which is a bit questionable at this point. Although he has averaged 35.8 points and 9.5 assists per game in his last four without Westbrook, he’s just at 28.7 PPG on a dreadful 32.8% shooting in three games against the Thunder this season.

Outside of Harden, no other active Rocket is averaging double-digit points versus the Thunder. The next three are PJ Tucker, Danuel House Jr., and Ben McLemore, who are all under 8.4 PPG. Austin Rivers can explode from time to time, but he’s a combined 2-for-13 for four points in the head-to-head match-ups, and 1-for-11 in his last two outings.

Houston is scoring 115.3 PPG and allowing 118.6 PPG since the restart.

ROAD TEAM: #5 Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0)

The Thunder also failed to establish any rhythm in the seeding games as they only split the eight contests to go 4-4 – one game they’re blowing out the 1-seed Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points, and on the next the Memphis Grizzlies are trashing them for 29 points, who mostly stunk in the bubble.

Like the Rockets, the Thunder are also dealing with an injury, as starting center Steven Adams is day-to-day due to leg problems. The big man got hurt against the Lakers on August 6th and missed the next three games; he has only played 25 minutes across two games since.

Adams’s interior presence is huge, especially on defense. Along with chipping in 10.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, he’s a disruptor in the paint and can close out lanes for guys like Harden.

With that, the three-guard combo of OKC will have to do a whole lot – Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder. The three have been leading the team in scoring since the restart, and they’re also producing well in the regular season series, with Paul and Schroder both at 20.3 PPG and Gilgeous-Alexander at 18.3 PPG.

Forward Danilo Gallinari is pacing the team in scoring for the season series (21.7 PPG, 10 RPG), but he has slowed down in the bubble (14.7 PPG).

OKC is scoring 107.6 PPG and allowing 109.4 PPG in the bubble.

PREDICTIONS:

Look for a very locked-in Chris Paul. The veteran is a vicious competitor and he’ll treat this as a revenge series. I expect him to have a big scoring night or a healthy double-double. OKC’s strategy for Harden should be pretty interesting too.

The Rockets will be relying on their threes as always, but I see the Thunder drawing first blood, 114-108.