The Dallas Mavericks and the Sacramento Kings will fight for their season’s life in a win-or-go-home showdown at Golden 1 Center. The winner will face the Memphis Grizzlies next for the final playoff berth in the West, while the loser will pack their bags for an early vacation.

Catch this game live on Thursday, April 17, 2025 at 10:00 AM, Manila time

Away: Dallas Mavericks 

Projected Starting Five:

  • Spencer Dinwiddie
  • Klay Thompson
  • P.J. Washington
  • Anthony Davis (Probable)
  • Dereck Lively II

The Mavericks are still the defending Western Conference champions, and they look forward to keeping that claim for at least one more game. However, they enter this play-in tournament limping. They ended the regular season losing four of five games, including a 132-97 blowout loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last Monday, though, that was when Dallas knew its play-in tournament fate. Anthony Davis did not play against the Grizzlies, and is listed as probable for the Kings game, but is expected to see action in the do-or-die contest.

Davis can create problems for Sacramento, which has not played Dallas this season with the star big man on the floor.  In nine games with the Mavs in the regular season, Davis averaged 20.0 points and 10.1 rebounds. Meanwhile, the Mavs also hope that Klay Thompson will have some kind of personal revenge against the Kings, who held him to a brutal 0-for-10 shooting in his final game in a Warriors uniform – also in a play-in game in 2024.

The Mavericks are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games as the road team versus Sacramento.

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Home: Sacramento Kings 

Projected Starting Five:

  • Keon Ellis
  • Zach LaVine
  • DeMar DeRozan
  • Keegan Murray
  • Domantas Sabonis

Unlike the Mavs, the Kings won their regular-season finale, crushing the Phoenix Suns in a 109-98 victory at home to also snap a two-game losing skid. Sacramento appears to have the Mavericks’ number, as the Kings went 3-0 straight up in the regular season versus Dallas. The Kings had an averaging winning margin of 11.6 in those games, including a 122-98 victory early last March in Dallas. 

The duo of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan spell trouble for the Mavs based on recent encounters. This season, LaVine played two Kings games versus Dallas and averaged 19.5 points on a 53.3 field goal percentage and 45.5 percent success rate from deep. DeRozan, on the other hand, averaged 25.3 points, shot 58 percent from the floor and made 50 percent of his 3-point attempts in three meetings with the Mavericks.

As a team, the Kings finished the regular season 10th in the league with 115.7 points per game. They are also 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games versus Dallas, dating back to 2023.

Picks

Spread: Dallas Mavericks (+4.5)

Over/Under: Over (215.5)

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