The 2026-27 NBA season tips off on October 20, and the sportsbooks have already made up their minds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorites at 3.2 to 1, with the San Antonio Spurs right behind them at 3.5 to 1. That means a 100 bet on OKC gets you 320 back if they win it all, which is your 100 plus 220 in profit, and the same bet on the Spurs gets you 350 back.

After that, there’s a big drop. The LeBron-led Sixers are next at 8.5 to 1, the defending champion Knicks sit at 9 to 1, and nobody else is shorter than 13 to 1.

That doesn’t make it a two-team league, though. Preseason odds are a bit like a weather forecast in July: useful, but nobody’s canceling plans over them. The Knicks won the title last season as a No. 3 seed, so I went through the top 10 on the board and made the best case I could for each one.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 3.2 to 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just won his second straight MVP, and the Thunder have led the league in net rating in each of the last two seasons. They went 64-18 last year and swept their first two playoff series before losing Game 7 of the West finals in San Antonio.

Jalen Williams is back healthy, and Jared McCain, who they got from Philly in February, gives them another young scorer to bring along. Chet Holmgren is nursing a bruised quad that kept him out of the preseason, but OKC isn’t worried about him missing Tuesday’s opener against, of all teams, the Spurs. If anything, it might save a bit of pride on Chet’s side, considering Victor Wembanyama has made it his life’s mission to destroy him whenever they match up.

The case against: depth. OKC moved Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins this summer to stay under the second apron, and that’s a lot of the toughness that made them so annoying to play against.

San Antonio Spurs: 3.5 to 1

The Spurs went 62-20 and made the Finals a year ahead of schedule, and the scary part is that their best players are still getting better. Victor Wembanyama is the most unfair defensive player in the league, and De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper give San Antonio three guards who can pressure the ball all night.

They also beat the Thunder in a Game 7 on the way to the Finals, so they already know they can win the biggest series in the West.

The case against: the Knicks handled them 4-1 in the Finals, and the shooting still comes and goes. That’s the one thing that could trip them up again.

Philadelphia 76ers: 8.5 to 1

No team had a crazier summer. The Sixers traded Paul George and two first-round picks for Jaylen Brown, who averaged a career-high 28.7 points, then signed LeBron James to a two-year, $8 million deal. Add Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, and you’ve got the most talented starting five in the East on paper.

They also showed some fight last spring, coming back from 3-1 down to knock out Boston in the first round.

The case against: health and depth. LeBron turns 42 in December, Embiid played 38 games last season and Ariel Hukporti’s season-ending Achilles tear left them thin at center.

New York Knicks: 9 to 1

The defending champs might be the most disrespected team on this list. The Knicks swept the Sixers and the Cavaliers on their way to the Finals, then beat the Spurs in five games, and Jalen Brunson walked away with Finals MVP.

Better yet, the starting five of Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart is back intact.

The case against: Mitchell Robinson left for Boston, and the Knicks only won 53 games last season before flipping the switch in the playoffs. Can they really do that two years in a row?

Boston Celtics: 13 to 1

Boston won 56 games last season with Jayson Tatum missing most of the year, which tells you how good the infrastructure is. Now Tatum is back, Paul George is in for Jaylen Brown and Mitchell Robinson gives them the rebounder they were missing.

Payton Pritchard also looks ready, dropping 25 on the Sixers in a 144-106 preseason blowout.

The case against: they blew a 3-1 lead to Philly in the first round, and swapping Brown for a 36-year-old George is a big bet on Tatum being Tatum again.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 20 to 1

The Cavs won 52 games, then survived two Game 7s against Toronto and Detroit to reach the conference finals. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are locked up, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen still anchor the paint and Peyton Watson brings the length on the wing they’ve been missing.

If the East’s top teams get banged up, Cleveland might be the most stable team in the conference.

The case against: the Knicks swept them by an average of 19.3 points in the conference finals. That’s four straight disappointing playoff exits, and this feels like the last run for this version of the team.

Detroit Pistons: 23 to 1

Detroit was the best team in the East last season at 60-22, which is a damn good season for a team that won 14 games just two years earlier, and most of that core is back. Jalen Duren signed a new five-year deal, Cade Cunningham is still the engine and John Collins comes in to replace Tobias Harris.

The case against: they needed seven games to get past Orlando and then lost a Game 7 to Cleveland. Spacing around Duren and Ausar Thompson is still a playoff problem, and they need another perimeter scorer.

Toronto Raptors: 23 to 1

This is the team I’d keep an eye on. Toronto brought Kawhi Leonard back in a trade with the Clippers, giving up Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and two future firsts, and Kawhi was a second-team All-NBA player last season at 27.9 points per game.

Pair him with Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Collin Murray-Boyles, and the Raptors could have one of the best defenses in the league.

The case against: Kawhi is 35, and while 65 games last season was great by his standards, it still means a lot of nervous nights. Toronto also went just 46-36 before the trade.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 23 to 1

The Wolves knocked out Denver in the first round last season, and now they’ve added LaMelo Ball to play next to Anthony Edwards. That could be the most explosive backcourt in the league.

They lost Julius Randle and sent Naz Reid to Charlotte in the LaMelo trade, but Jonathan Kuminga signed on to fill the hole at power forward, and Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are still there to hold up the defense.

The case against: it’s a brand-new identity, and San Antonio already sent them home last year. Somebody also has to guard the perimeter when LaMelo is on the floor.

Denver Nuggets: 23 to 1

As long as Nikola Jokic is on the floor, the Nuggets are a problem for anybody. The starting five of Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun is still one of the best in the league, and the bench finally has some scoring with DeMar DeRozan and Tyus Jones.

The case against: they lost to the sixth-seeded Wolves in the first round, Peyton Watson left for Cleveland and Gordon’s health is always a question. They’re also giving up a lot of athleticism to the Spurs and Thunder.

So who actually wins it?

Just missing the cut is Miami at 28 to 1, which tells you how deep the top of the league is when a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo sits 11th. And if you’re looking for the Kings, keep scrolling. They’re not in the top 15, and trust me, I checked.

Maybe I’m overreacting to one Game 7, but I’d still take the Thunder. They’ve had the best net rating in the league two years running, they have the reigning MVP and they were one win away from the Finals. San Antonio’s time is coming, though, and maybe sooner than I think.

Who do you have winning it all?