The Miami Heat have emerged as one of the biggest surprises of the 2019-20 season. They are miles better than the rather forgettable squad that was paraded last year, one that played slow (23rd in pace), had terrible offense (26th in scoring), couldn’t sink a free throw to save their lives (dead-last in FT%), and choked away a playoff spot by losing five of their last six games. It was a complete bummer for fans as the collapse fell on the final season of Heat legend Dwyane Wade.

However, the current squad is better. It has the attractive traits of an upstart team that rose out of nowhere, which is mixed perfectly with an unselfish, high-energy, two-way playing style that lets you know they play and win as a unit. Wade seems happy with his retirement but you can’t help but wonder how he’d fit in this core.

Now before you try to paint this as a lovefest for the Heat, know that I’ll touch on both the good and bad about the 2019-20 edition. I also see some concerning trends, and these could have consequences as serious as a possible early playoff exit.

THE GOOD

Good # 1 – Jimmy Butler

The acquisition of the controversial All-Star was one of the early splashes of the 2019 off-season. This is a statement that’s been beaten to death but what else can one say? It’s turned out to be a perfect fit. The Miami Heat preach a blue-collar type of grind, tenacity, and in-your-face aggressiveness on the court and that is the definition of Jimmy Butler’s style.

With Butler, Miami equipped itself with a true go-to guy, someone who had the skill, consistency, and unapologetic assertion to make big-time plays, both on offense and defense. The Heat tried to squeeze all of that out of Josh Richardson last season, and while he was quite decent and turned into a beloved youngster, he proved to be too raw for the part, hence the trade for Butler.

Butler’s efficiency is averaging 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game this season. He’s also become a leader and inspiration to the Heat’s youngsters.

Good # 2 – Balanced scoring

The Heat do not operate on Mike D’Antoni’s ‘7 Seconds or Less’ scheme, or even a stereotypical ‘Run and Gun’ offense, but they are definitely causing a lot of confusion and headaches defensively. They can lunge at the defense from anywhere on the court, and any of their five on the floor can explode on any given day.

Sorting out stats within the past three weeks, five Heat players (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, and Duncan Robinson) are on separate stretches where they are scoring more than 16 per game. Two more (Tyler Herro and Jae Crowder) are on the 12-13 PPG range, and although both are currently out with an injury, they are expected to be ready within the next week or so, and surely for the postseason.

With the exception of Crowder, who has only been with the team for 12 games, all of the Heat guys we mentioned have tallied 20 or more points at least 10 times this season. Even more interesting, everyone excluding Dragic, whose season-high is only one-point shy, has also scored 30 or more at least once this season.

Good # 3 – The record against the East’s elites

There’s no denying that the Heat are still applying for its membership among the East’s top dogs, namely the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers.

There’s also no denying how well they have performed against three of those teams. They currently hold a combined 7-1 slate over the Bucks, Raptors, and Sixers, and each team has been dealt with a convincing defeat.

The league-leading, 53-10 Bucks are 0-2 against the Heat. One via blowout and one through an overtime finish.

The defending champion Toronto Raptors are in the same boat, and one of those losses was an OT domination that had the Heat outscoring the Raps, 13-2.

The Sixers, meanwhile, are 1-3. They own the best home record in the league at 28-2, and their first home loss came courtesy of the Heat.

The Celtics are the lone East team that are yet to lose against the Heat. While it may sound like a big blemish on Miami’s part, Boston did have a couple of advantages on the two wins. On both occasions, the Heat were on the second night of a back-to-back and had one key rotation man sidelined with an injury.

Good # 4 – The overtime warrior mentality

Overtime is where teams grow and show much fight they truly have, and the Heat are thrive in these cardiac battles with great consistency. They are 8-1 in extra periods this season, far and away the most one team has played in the 2019-20 campaign.

There are some nice stats too. Between overtime games, the Heat are sixth in scoring at 12.2 PPG, allowed five points or less thrice, and still the only team this season not to allow a field goal in the entire overtime period (held the Raptors to 0-for-9 shooting on December 4, 2019).

THE BAD

Bad # 1 – The road woes

The overachieving Heat had a lot of stumbles in February. They went through a 14-game stretch where they went 5-9, and much of it was due to their issues when outside Miami.

The Heat, who are only 14-19 on the road, just climbed out of a seven-game road losing streak. It was an awful run that saw them blow lead after lead in the fourth quarter. Two of them even came against the bottom teams in the Eastern Conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers came back from 19 down in the 4th while the Atlanta Hawks rallied from nine down with 1:03 left.

Such collapses are concerning and will get them exposed and booted in a playoff setting. As they always say, “no playoff series begins until the road team wins a game.”

Bad # 2 – The playoff inexperience

Playoff experience is everywhere. Jimmy Butler has had multiple playoff runs, Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, and Kelly Olynyk have all reached a Conference Finals series, and Andre Iguodala has three championships.

The problem is their experience as a unit. This is the team’s first playoff appearance together and, looking at their struggles this past month, one can probably say that it’s a preview of the cracks.

All that postseason mileage will be even cut in half since Iguodala and Olynyk are not crucial factors on offense. Also, during the rest’s respective trips to the conference finals, all were role players for the most part.

Look at last season’s Raptors-Bucks series. Everyone thought that the top-seeded, 60-win Bucks will just cruise, and it appeared that way for the first two games, but because the Raps have better chemistry together, albeit in separate chunks, and the Bucks were basically neophytes in situations where expectations are high, Toronto was able to climb back – Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have previously won a title together, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and Fred VanVleet have been to multiple playoff runs, and Ibaka and Marc Gasol have played together in the Olympics. That type of familiarity is short within the Heat’s core.

DO THE GOOD OUTWEIGH THE BAD?

Since there’s four good points and only two bad ones, let’s assume that it will. Then again, the two negatives are as strong as any of the positives.

The challenge of that first-round series will be crucial. The Heat’s response to the initial pressure will dictate as to how ‘for real’ they really are. If the overtime-busting, hard-charging squad is what we consistently see, then they’re a big threat to make the Eastern Conference Finals. Then it could just come down to which one of the other elite teams they face for the right to make the NBA Finals.